The SSP Framework

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Illustration of the SSP framework from O'Neill et al. (2014)

SSPs are central tools for understanding future trajectories of energy and land use, for assessing risks of climate change impacts and policy options to reduce them. They were the dominant set of socio-economic scenarios in the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC, used by modeling groups around the world to explore a range of socioeconomic futures, which rest on a consistent set of assumptions about economic, demographic, technological and socio-cultural developments over the 21st century.

The SSP framework consists of five storylines, formulated to describe a spectrum from high to low challenges to adaptation (e.g., level of vulnerability in a society) and challenges to mitigation (e.g., carbon intensity of GDP). Broad qualitative narratives about the future of the world have been quantified for three key factors: population, income (GDP) and urbanization.

The narratives underlying each of the scenarios are provided below, adapted from their original descriptions in the manuscript by O’Neill et al. (2017) titled “The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century”.

SSP1

Sustainability - Taking the green road

SSP1 describes a world that is shifting towards a more sustainable trajectory, prioritizing inclusive development while respecting perceived environmental boundaries. This transformation is facilitated by a growing awareness and consideration of the social, cultural, and economic costs associated with environmental degradation and inequality. Improved management of the global commons is slowly emerging, facilitated by enhanced cooperation among local, national, and international organizations, the private sector, and civil society. Accelerated investments in education and health contribute to a demographic transition, resulting in a relatively low global population.

Initiating in current high-income nations, there is a shift from solely focusing on economic growth to a broader emphasis on human well-being, even if it means sacrificing some economic growth in the long term. This shift is driven by an increased dedication to achieving development goals, leading to reduced inequality both within and among countries. Investments in low-carbon technology and changes in tax structures enhance resource efficiency, diminishing overall energy and resource consumption and fostering long-term environmental improvements. Renewable energy becomes more attractive due to increased investment, financial incentives, and shifting perceptions. Consumption patterns lean towards low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity.

The deliberate development of low-carbon technologies, a positive outlook on renewable energy, and institutions supporting international cooperation result in relatively low challenges for mitigation. Simultaneously, improvements in human well-being, coupled with robust and adaptable global, regional, and national institutions, imply low challenges for adaptation.

SSP1

Further reading